How South Asia can seize the opportunity to build a resilient and sustainable future
来源:World Economic Forum;发表于:2022-02-21;人气指数:329
How South
Asia can seize the opportunity to build a resilient and sustainable future
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/how-south-asia-can-seize-the-opportunity-to-build-a-resilient-and-sustainable-future/
Here's how South Asia
can unlock economic growth, drive development and strengthen the region's
competitiveness.
Image:
REUTERS/Niharika Kulkarni
14 Jan 2022
Viraj Mehta
Head of Regional
Agenda - India and South Asia, Member of the Executive Committee, World
Economic Forum Geneva
Suchi Kedia
Community Specialist,
Regional Agenda - India and South Asia, World Economic Forum
*Enhanced regional
cooperation can unlock economic growth – and a regional supply chain can have
payoffs for South Asia and the world.
*The new services
economy can drive development in South Asia, but regulatory reforms, digital
infrastructure and reskilling/upskilling are needed.
*A green recovery can
strengthen South Asia's long-term competitiveness, but key reforms are
critical.
Home to one-quarter
of the world’s population, South Asia has been severely impacted by the COVID-19
pandemic. The magnitude has been particularly acute due to the vast proportion
of the population living at the margins, fragmented coverage of social
protection, pervasive informality in economic activities and employment, and
wide gaps in public health infrastructure.
In South Asia, the
pandemic is estimated to have led to 62-71 million new poor in 2020 and 48-59
million new poor in 2021. Tourism, an important sector in all South Asian
economies – particularly for the Maldives – has been severely hit too,
destroying the livelihoods of millions dependent on it and related activities.
The pandemic also severely impacted small and medium enterprises, which are the
backbones of South Asian economies and make a substantial contribution to GDP,
employment and exports.
The crisis has
accentuated historic inequalities and vulnerabilities – and is likely to
reverse years, if not decades, of gains in poverty reduction, undermining the
progress made by South Asian nations towards achieving the Sustainable
Development Goals.
While the economic
harm is far from undone, recovery continues in South Asia, with strong growth
in production activities and exports. As South Asia recuperates, it has an
opportunity to leverage the crisis to build back more equitable, sustainable
and resilient societies. Recovery paths and new growth strategies should be
informed by lessons learned from – and innovations introduced during – the
crisis.
Enhanced regional
cooperation
Among other unfolding
opportunities, enhanced regional cooperation provides a platform upon which
South Asia can build unique clout. Despite the advantages of proximity,
structural and cultural familiarities, shared developmental priorities and
multiple institutional frameworks for regional cooperation, South Asia is among
the world's least economically integrated regions. It has an opportunity to
reinvent itself and emerge as an integrated regional economy with improved
trade, supply chain and other economic exchanges such as shared infrastructure
and cross-border movement of human and capital resources across the region.
Addressing historical
mismatches in cross-border trade and labour markets, harnessing the shared
internal economy of the region for inputs, markets and consumption, and
strengthening regional institutions and agreements could unlock existing and
hitherto untapped economic opportunities. With the ongoing redistribution of
global supply chains, a regional supply chain could have significant payoffs.
In particular, regional economies must collaborate to implement in full the
South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). A concerted and shared approach to
advancing economic integration can facilitate efficiency-seeking industry
restructuring throughout the region to promote economies of scale,
specialisation and competitiveness.
New services economy
Historic opportunities
arising in today's moments of crisis will not be available once old patterns
take root again. For South Asia, one such opportunity can be the emergence of
the new services economy.
With digital
technologies taking centre stage during the pandemic, the services economy got
a significant boost worldwide. Both directly and through their spill-over
effect on other sectors, services play an important role in raising export
revenues, boosting productivity and generating jobs. Digital technologies such
as 5G, robotics, 3-D printing and virtual reality have made services more
tradable, scalable and uniform, independent of the proximity burden. The
pandemic also boosted the region’s e-commerce sector, which typifies South
Asia’s new digital platform economy.
The new services
economy can drive development in South Asia. However, fully unleashing these
opportunities relies on reforms in the institutional and regulatory
environment, creation of conducive digital infrastructure and relevant
reskilling/upskilling. Market-oriented training programmes to improve the
quality of technical skills needed for these sectors will be critical.
A green recovery can
strengthen long-term competitiveness
South Asian countries
have another unique opportunity – to place green recovery at the heart of
post-pandemic economic planning and build greener and more sustainable cities.
Pursuing a green recovery can strengthen South Asia’s long-term economic
competitiveness while helping to ensure an environmentally resilient future.
Green recovery planning can also foster new collaborations and public-private
partnerships within and between South Asian nations.
The COP26 summit
recently focused the world’s attention on the urgent need to tackle climate
change. Amid consensus on the urgency and magnitude of the transformation
needed to decarbonise the global economy and reduce climate impacts, South
Asia’s role and contributions will be critical for the world to achieve current
targets.
South Asian nations
can leverage multiple opportunities for cross-country collaboration in their
green transition, such as sharing lessons and best practices, joint
capacity-building exercises and regional emissions reduction strategies.
Multiple regional economies are already leading on climate-impact mitigation and
adaptation:
*India recently
announced the establishment of a National Hydrogen Mission. India’s ambitious
five-part “Panchamrit” pledge to reach net zero by 2070 was one of the most
important announcements at Glasgow.
*Bangladesh launched
the world’s first country investment plan to tackle climate change and has been
leading in building coastal resilience.
*Pakistan achieved a
landmark 9% reduction in climate-altering carbon emissions thanks to massive
afforestation programmes and nature-based interventions such as the Ten Billion
Tree Tsunami and the Protected Areas Initiative. By 2030, Pakistan aims to
shift to 60% renewable energy and 30% electric vehicles and completely ban
imported coal.
*Nepal is the first
co-recipient country of a Green Climate Fund grant for national adaptation
planning. The country’s community-based forest management programs have helped
reduce deforestation by 40%.
*Bhutan is the
world’s first carbon-negative country.
Going forward,
nations need to explore concrete opportunities to integrate green, inclusive
and resilient COVID-19 recovery packages into national development plans.
Long-term policy changes to support Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
implementation, mainstreaming adaptation measures to guide national and
subnational development strategies and enhancing private sector participation
can help South Asia set a robust green recovery agenda.
However, key reforms
will be critical for South Asia to pursue a green recovery and growth future,
including access to clean energy, green infrastructure and green financing,
fossil fuel subsidy reform and pricing, risk-informed urban planning,
sustainable infrastructure and transport systems, and local community
participation. By working with and supporting each other, South Asian countries
can enhance global progress on climate action while unlocking new investments
and partnerships for their own green transition.
South Asia has a rare
opportunity to not only address the short-term public health challenge but also
become an important axis of power and influence in the new global order. The
World Economic Forum stands to partner with the region to help shape the contours
of a new world order with a better, brighter and more sustainable future for
all.