ASEAN is poised for post-pandemic inclusive growth and prosperity – here's why
来源:World Economic Forum;发表于:2022-04-11;人气指数:313
ASEAN is
poised for post-pandemic inclusive growth and prosperity – here's why
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/asean-is-poised-for-post-pandemic-inclusive-growth-and-prosperity-heres-why/
ASEAN is on track to
become the fourth-largest economy – but public-private cooperation is essential
for a sustainable and resilient future.
Image: REUTERS/Willy
Kurniawan
18 Jan 2022
Joo-Ok Lee
Head, Regional Agenda
- Asia-Pacific; Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum
Shaun Adam
Community Lead,
Regional and Global Cooperation, Asia-Pacific, World Economic Forum
*ASEAN is on-track to
become the fourth-largest economy in the world.
*Coordinated pandemic
response efforts, along with implementation of the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership (RCEP) and digital transformation, will drive inclusive
growth and development in the region.
*Public-private
cooperation is key to ASEAN's sustainable, resilient and green future.
The COVID-19 pandemic
caused global investment activities to fall – due to economic uncertainties,
lockdowns, supply chain disruptions and postponement of investment by
multinational enterprises. ASEAN also recorded a decline in foreign direct
investment (FDI) in 2020 to $137 billion, down from its highest-ever inflow of
$182 billion in 2019 when it was the largest recipient of FDI in the developing
world.
Despite the decline, ASEAN
remained an attractive investment destination. The region’s share of global FDI
rose from 11.9% in 2019 to 13.7% in 2020, while the intra-ASEAN share of FDI in
the region increased from 12% to 17%. Additionally, the longer-term trend shows
that the value of international project finance in ASEAN has doubled from an
annual average of $37 billion in 2015–2017 to an annual average of $74 billion
in 2018–2020.
And the future looks
bright. According to the first-of-its-kind ASEAN Development Outlook (ADO) report,
the total combined GDP of 10 ASEAN countries in 2019 was valued at $3.2
trillion – making ASEAN the fifth-largest economy in the world, well on track
to become the fourth largest by 2030. With a total population of about 700
million people, 61% are under the age of 35 – and the majority of young
people are embracing digital technologies in their daily activities.
The outlook remains
promising, with coordinated pandemic response efforts and several key
developments underway in the region.
Coordinated pandemic
responses
ASEAN members took
coordinated actions to respond to pandemic challenges, such as the Hanoi
Plan of Action on Strengthening ASEAN Economic Cooperation and Supply Chain Connectivity
in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Members collaborated on the flow of
essential goods and enhanced the resilience of its supply chains and sourcing
in the region. This joint response was critical given how the
concentration of FDI in ASEAN is connected to global value chain
activities or regional production networks that involve intra- and inter-firm
linkages.
To support recovery
and resilience building, ASEAN launched the COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund and
cooperated with external partners on the ASEAN Centre for Public Health
Emergencies and Emerging Diseases (ACPHEED) to enhance regional health
security and to sustain ASEAN preparedness and resilience in the face of public
health emergencies.
Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership
The ASEAN-led Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement came into force on 1
January 2022 for Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Japan, Lao PDR,
New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. With it, ASEAN resolves to keep
markets open while strengthening regional economic integration towards
post-pandemic inclusive recovery.
RCEP is the biggest
regional free trade agreement in existence and will cover 30% of global
GDP and 30% of the world population in addition to accounting for over
one-quarter of global trade in goods and services. Key provisions addresses
liberalizing and promoting intra-RCEP trade, investment and services as well as
developing e-commerce, which is highly relevant for regional value chains
and market- and efficiency-seeking investment. Furthermore, non-RCEP companies
can also take advantage of RCEP benefits by locating and operating in the
region.
Considering
that 40% of investment in ASEAN comes from RCEP members – of which
24% comes from non-ASEAN RCEP member countries – opportunities exist to boost
more sustainable FDI in the region, particularly value chain-linked FDI taking
into account the benefits of RCEP and the recently concluded ASEAN
Investment Facilitation Framework (AIFF).
40% of investment in
ASEAN comes from RCEP members
Image: ASEAN
Secretariat/UN Conference on Trade & Development
Fourth Industrial
Revolution and digital transformation
The recent adoption
of the Consolidated Strategy on the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) for
ASEAN during the 38th and 39th ASEAN Summits and the ASEAN
Agreement on Electronic Commerce will advance the region’s push for
digital transformation and private investment in digital infrastructure
development (5G networks and data centres), cloud computing, cybersecurity,
artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing.
The ASEAN
Comprehensive Recovery Framework (ACRF) identified digital connectivity as
a priority to facilitate regional connectivity and economic recovery. This
correlated to the findings of a survey of 86,000 people from six ASEAN
countries conducted by the World Economic Forum and Sea, which found
respondents (including business owners) who were “more digitalized” tended to
be more economically resilient during the pandemic.
ASEAN agrees:
digitalization is critical for economic recovery.
Image: World Economic
Forum and Sea
However, the survey
also found several barriers to digital adoption including affordable access to
quality internet and digital devices. The Forum is addressing this global issue
through initiatives like the EDISON Alliance, which mobilizes
multistakeholder collaboration to expand digital access to more than 1 billion
people by 2025.
The ASEAN
Digital Integration Framework will also support the ACRF. The Forum has
been complementing ASEAN efforts through the Digital ASEAN Initiative on
data policy, digital skills, e-payments and cybersecurity.
The way forward:
public-private cooperation
The Forum’s Centre
for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Network, which brings stakeholders
together to maximize the benefits of technology while reducing potential risks,
have shown that public-private cooperation is instrumental for businesses and
government to develop cooperative ecosystems to advance digital transformation
and innovation.
Governments have an
important role in incentivizing investments in research and development, while
the private sector will drive Industry 4.0 transformation through investing in
digitalization of manufacturing, using advanced manufacturing solutions,
building smart factories and establishing R&D facilities, technology hubs,
and centres of excellence in the region.
Embracing 4IR also
requires a parallel commitment to environmental sustainability. This can
establish new forms of efficiency wherein sustainability and competitive
excellence are not only compatible, but, in fact, intertwined. A green future
does not only benefit the well-being of the next ASEAN generation but is also
good for ASEAN economically, boosting the region`s competitiveness in
attracting green FDIs to address new climate-related investment and trade
measures adopted by developed economies.
ASEAN has shown
strong commitment towards climate change and global sustainability efforts.
Several initiatives support ASEAN`s sustainable ambitions, including the Global
Plastic Action Partnership in Indonesia and Vietnam.
However, greater
commitment to environmental stewardship is also required from the private
sector to design corporate purchasing commitments that can drive investment in
green technologies and market demand for low-carbon tech to help ASEAN
meet climate-related goals. The First Movers Coalition launched
during COP26 could offer valuable insights for ASEAN on how the private sector
can drive decarbonization in different industries and societies in the region.